Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning

This paper discusses the selection of indicators for comprehensive and sustainable transportation planning. It discusses the concept of sustainability and the role of indicators in planning, describes factors to consider when selecting indicators, identifies potential problems with conventional indicators, describes examples of indicators, and provides recommendations for selecting indicators for use in a particular situation. Jan Vermeer The Astronomer (c. 1668, Oil on canvas) Published as: “Developing Indicators For Comprehensive And Sustainable Transport Planning,” Transportation Research Record 2017, TRB (www.trb.org), 2007, pp. 10-15. This paper summarizes the report: Todd Litman (2005), Well Measured: Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning, VTPI (www.vtpi.org); at www.vtpi.org/wellmeas.pdf. Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 2 Introduction How things are measured can affect their perceived value. A particular activity or option may seem desirable and successful when measured one way, but undesirable and ineffective when measured in another. It is therefore important to understand the assumptions and implications of different types of measurements. For example, doctors usually check their patients’ weight during medical exams. But weight by itself indicates little about health. It would be wrong to assume that everybody who weighs less than 175 pounds is healthy and everybody who weighs more than 175 pounds is unhealthy. People with different heights and builds have different optimal weights, so medical professionals must use weight-height tables or body-mass indices to interpret the health implications of a person’s weight. Weight is relatively easy to measure, but it is just one health factor. Focusing too much attention on weight may distract doctors from considering other important but more difficult to measure health factors, such as whether patients’ diet, fitness activities, and other behaviors. Comprehensive and sustainability planning rely on measurable indicators (1). Such indicators have many uses for planning and management, regardless of whether a decision-making process is considered sustainability planning. This data can help establish baselines, identify trends, predict problems, assess options, set performance targets, and evaluate a particular jurisdiction or organization. Which indicators are selected can significantly influence analysis results. A particular policy may rank high when evaluated using one set of indicators, but low when ranked by another. Key Definitions (2) Baseline (or benchmark) – existing, projected or reference conditions if change is not implemented. Goal – what you ultimately want to achieve. Objective – a way to achieve a goal. Target – A specified, realistic, measurable objective. Indicator – a variable selected and defined to measure progress toward an objective. Indicator data – values used in indicators. Indicator framework – conceptual structure linking indicators to a theory, purpose or planning process. Indicator set – a group of indicators selected to measure comprehensive progress toward goals. Index – a group of indicators aggregated into a single value. Indicator system – a process for defining indicators, collecting and analyzing data and applying results. Indicator type – nature of data used by indicator (qualitative or quantitative, absolute or relative). Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 3 Sustainable Transportation There is growing interest in sustainability and its implications for transport planning (3). Sustainability reflects the fundamental human desire to create a better future world and leave a positive and durable legacy. Sustainability emphasizes the integrated nature of human activities and therefore the need to coordinate decisions among different sectors, groups and jurisdictions. Sustainability planning (also called comprehensive planning) considers society’s overall, long-term goals. It means that local, short-term decisions are consistent with strategic, regional and global, long-term goals. This contrasts with reductionist planning, in which problems are assigned to a profession or organization with narrow responsibilities and goals, which can result in solutions to one problem that exacerbate other problems facing society (4). There is no universally accepted definition of sustainability, sustainable development or sustainable transport (5). Below are examples of definitions: Sustainable development “meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (6) “Sustainability is equity and harmony extended into the future, a careful journey without an endpoint, a continuous striving for the harmonious co-evolution of environmental, economic and socio-cultural goals.” (7) “...sustainability is not about threat analysis; sustainability is about systems analysis. Specifically, it is about how environmental, economic, and social systems interact to their mutual advantage or disadvantage at various spacebased scales of operation.” (8) A sustainable transportation system is one that (9): • Allows the basic access needs of individuals and societies to be met safely and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, and with equity within and between generations. • Is affordable, operates efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a vibrant economy. • Limits emissions and waste within the planet’s ability to absorb them, minimizes consumption of non-renewable resources, limits consumption of renewable resources to the sustainable yield level, reuses and recycles its components, and minimizes the use of land and the production of noise. “The goal of sustainable transportation is to ensure that environment, social and economic considerations are factored into decisions affecting transportation activity.” (10) Concern about sustainability can be considered a reaction to the tendency of decisionmaking to focus on easy to measure goals and impacts while ignoring those that are more difficult to measure. Sustainable decision-making can therefore be described as planning that considers goals and impacts regardless of how difficult they are to measure. Interest in sustainability originally reflected concerns about long-term risks of Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 4 current resource consumption, reflecting the goals of “intergenerational equity” (i.e., being fair to future generations). But if future equity and environmental quality are concerns, it makes little sense to ignore equity and environmental impacts occurring during this generation. Thus, sustainability ultimately reflects the goals of equity, ecological integrity and human welfare, regardless of time or location. Ecological economics (a discipline concerned with valuing ecological resources) defines sustainability in terms of natural capital, the value of natural systems to provide goods and services, including clean air and water, and climatic stability (11). Preserving these services is equivalent to a business maintaining the value of its productive assets. Ecological economists argue that consumption should not deplete natural capital at a faster rate than it can be replaced by viable and durable human capital. This suggests, for example, that non-renewable resources such as petroleum should not be depleted without sufficient development of substitutes, such as renewable energy sources. Sustainable economics maintains a distinction between growth (increased quantity) and development (increased quality). It focuses on social welfare outcomes rather than simply measuring material wealth, and questions common economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, which measure only the quantity but not the quality of market activities. Sustainable economics strives for sufficiency, as opposed to neoclassic economics which generally assumes that continually increasing consumption is desirable. Sustainability requires a conservation ethic, which maximizes resource efficiency. For example a consumption ethic supports lower road, parking and fuel prices to make vehicle travel affordable. A conservation ethic might increase such fees while implementing programs to improve mobility options, encourage more accessible land use, and increase vehicle fuel efficiency, so accessibility requires less resource consumption. Sustainability is sometimes defined narrowly, focusing on a few specific problems such as resource depletion and pollution, but is increasingly defined broadly to include other economic, social and environmental issues. Narrowly defined sustainability can overlook connections between issues and opportunities for integrated solutions. For example, comprehensive analysis helps identify strategies that achieve multiple planning objectives, and so are truly optimal. For example, comprehensive analysis allows planners to identify the congestion reduction strategies that also help achieve equity and environmental objectives, or at least avoid those that are socially and environmentally harmful. These integrated solutions can be considered the most sustainable. Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 5 Factors to Consider When Selecting Indicators Indicators are things that we measure in order to evaluate progress toward goals and objectives. For example, teachers track students’ participation and test scores to evaluate their learning progress. Motorist track their vehicle’s fuel and oil consumption rates, engine and brake noise to determine when it requires servicing. Indicators should be carefully selected to provide useful information. In most situations, no single indicator is adequate, so a set should be selected. An indicator set should reflect various goals and objectives. For example, it is desirable that a sustainable transportation indicator set reflect the impacts listed in Table 1, and possibly more. People using indicators should understand their perspectives and limitations. Table 1 Sustainable Transportation Impacts (2) Economic Social Environmental Traffic congestion Infrastructure costs Consumer costs Mobility barriers Accident damages DNRR Equity / Fairness Impacts on mobility disadvantaged Human health impacts Community cohesion Community livability Aesthetics Air pollution Climate change Noise and water pollution Habitat loss Hydrologic impacts DNRR DNRR=Depletion of Non-Renewable Resources These impacts can be defined in terms of goals, objectives, targets and thresholds. For example, a planning process may involve establishing traffic congestion indicators (defining how congestion will be measured), goals (the amount of congestion reduction desired, including factors such as whether reductions are particularly important for certain trips or vehicles, such as trucks and buses), objectives (shifts in travel time and mode to reduce congestion) and targets (specific, feasible changes in congestion impacts or travel behavior that should be achieved), and thresholds (levels beyond which additional actions will be taken to reduce congestion). Different types of indicators reflect different perspectives and assumptions. Some focus on vehicle travel or mobility, but a better perspective considers accessibility (the ability to reach activities and destinations), taking into account travel options and land use patterns. For example, roadway level-of-service (LOS) primarily reflects automobile travel congestion. It indicates little about the quality of other modes or land use accessibility. A planning process that relies primarily on roadway LOS to evaluate transport system performance implicitly assumes that automobile travel is the most important mode and congestion is the most important problem. Two areas can have equal roadway LOS ratings but very different overall transport system performance due to differences in transport diversity and the distribution of destinations. Similarly, measuring impacts per vehicle-mile, per passenger-mile, per capita or per unit of economic activity reflect different perspectives and assumptions about what is important and desirable. Indicators can reflect various levels, as illustrated in Table 2. For example, indicators may reflect the decision-making process (the quality of planning), responses (travel patterns), physical impacts (emission and accident rates), effects this has on people and Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 6 the environment (injuries and deaths, and ecological damages), and their economic impacts (costs to society due to crashes and environmental degradation). The use of indicators is just one step in the overall planning process, which includes consulting stakeholders, defining problems, establishing goals and objectives; identifying and evaluating options, developing policies and plans, implementing programs, establishing performance targets and measuring impacts. Table 2 Levels of Impacts Level Examples External Trends Changes in population, income, economic activity, political pressures, etc. Decision-Making Planning process, pricing policies, stakeholder involvement, etc. Options and Incentives Facility design and operations, transport services, prices, user information, etc. Response (Physical Changes) Changes in mobility, mode choice, pollution emissions, crashes, land development patterns, etc. Cumulative Impacts Changes in ambient pollution, traffic risk levels, overall accessibility, transportation costs, etc. Effects on People and the Environment Changes in pollution exposure, health, traffic injuries and fatalities, ecological productivity, etc. Economic Effects Property damages and productivity losses due to crashes and environmental degradation; increased travel costs due to reduced accessibility. Performance Evaluation Ability to achieve specified standards and targets. This table shows how indicators can measure various levels of impacts, from the planning process to travel behavior, impacts on people and the environment, and economic effects. Many impacts are best evaluated using relative indicators, such as trends over time, comparisons between different groups or activities within the jurisdiction, or comparisons with other jurisdictions. Indicators can reflect whether trends are positive or negative with respect to objectives. Equity can be evaluated based on how disadvantaged groups (people with low incomes, physical disabilities or other disadvantages) compare with other groups in terms of their transport options and impacts. Communities and agencies can be evaluated by comparing their performance with peers. Reference units are measurement units normalized to facilitate comparison of impacts, such as per-year, per-capita, per-mile, per-trip, per-vehicle-year and per dollar (4). The selection of reference units can affect how problems are defined and solutions prioritized. For example, measuring impacts such as emissions, crashes and costs per vehicle-mile ignores the effects of changes in vehicle mileage. Measuring these impacts per capita accounts for the effects of changes in total vehicle travel. Comparisons can Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 7 be structured in various ways to reflect different perspectives, such as comparisons between different areas and groups, or trends over time. Individual indicators should be selected based on their decision-making usefulness and ease of collection. There is tension between convenience and comprehensiveness when selecting indicators. A smaller set of indicators using easily available data is more convenient to collect and analyze, but may overlook important impacts. A larger set can be more comprehensive but have excessive data collection and analysis costs. By defining indicators early in a planning process and working with other organizations it is often possible to minimize data collection costs. For example, travel surveys can be modified to collect demographic data (such as income, age, disability status, driving ability, etc.) for equity evaluation, and land use modeling can incorporate more multimodal factors. Sustainability indicators can be integrated with other types of accounting statistics (12). Indicator sets should be derived as much as possible from existing accounting data sets, while existing accounting data should be extended towards sustainable development requirements. Hart recommends asking the following questions about potential indicators (13): • Is it relevant to the community's definition of sustainability? Sustainability in an urban or suburban area can be quite different from sustainability in a rural town. How well does the direction the indicator is pointing match the community's vision of sustainability? • Is it understandable to the community at large? If it is understood only by experts, it will only be used by experts. • Is it developed, accepted, and used by the community? How much do people really think about the indicator? We all know how much money we make every year. How many people really know how much water they use in a day? • Does it provide a long-term view of the community? Is there information about where the community has been as well as where the community should be in 20, 30, or 50 years? • Does it link the different areas of the community? The areas to link are: culture/social, economy, education, environment, health, housing, quality of life, politics, population, public safety, recreation, resource consumption/use, and transportation. • Is it based on information that is reliable, accessible, timely and accurate? • Does the indicator focus on local sustainability that is at the expense of global sustainability? Any indicator that says "we are going to be better off by making someone else worse off" should not generally be used. This does not mean that one community cannot be better than another community. There will always be communities that succeed while others fail; it just means that a community should not try to achieve sustainability at the expense of another community. Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 8 Vehicle Travel As A Sustainability Indicator Motor vehicle travel (measured as Vehicle Miles Traveled [VMT] or Vehicle Kilometers Traveled [VKT], and Passenger Miles Traveled [PMT] or Passenger Kilometers Traveled [PKT]) is sometimes used as a sustainability indicator, assuming that motorized travel is unsustainable because it is resource intensive and environmentally harmful. But this is controversial because motorized travel also provides economic and consumer benefits. Some people argue that high levels of motorized travel can be sustainable with technological improvements in vehicle and roadway designs (14). This issue can be viewed from an economic efficiency perspective. Current transport markets are distorted in ways that result in economically excessive motor vehicle travel, including various forms of road and parking underpricing, uncompensated environmental impacts, biased transport planning practices (e.g., dedicated highway funding, modeling that overlooks generated traffic effect, etc.), and land use planning practices that favor lower-density, automobile-oriented development (e.g., restrictions on density and multifamily housing, minimum parking supply, pricing that favors urban-fringe locations, etc.) Some analysis indicates that more than a third of all motor vehicle travel results from these distortions (15). To the degree that market distortions increase vehicle travel beyond what is economically optimal (beyond what consumers would choose in an efficient market), the additional vehicle travel can be considered unsustainable and policies that correct these distortions increase sustainability. In this context, vehicle mileage and shifts to nonautomobile modes can be considered sustainability indicators. This may not apply in some situations, such as in developing countries when vehicle ownership is growing from low to medium levels, and where transportation markets are efficient. Specific planning decisions can be evaluated according to whether they increase or reduce market efficiency. For example, when evaluating potential congestion reduction strategies, those that increase automobile traffic and sprawl (e.g., roadway expansion) can be considered unsustainable, while those that correct underpricing (e.g. road and parking pricing), increase transport system diversity (e.g., walking, cycling, rideshare and transit improvements), and encourage more efficient travel behavior (e.g., commute trip reduction programs) can be considered to increase sustainability. In situations where a significant portion of vehicle travel is excessive (such as urban peak conditions) blunter incentives may be justified, such as regulations that limit automobile travel and favor alternative modes. Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 9 Best Practices The following principles should be applied when selecting transportation performance indicators (13, 16): Comprehensive – Indicators should reflect various economic, social and environmental impacts, and various transport activities (such as both personal and freight transport). Data quality – Data collection practices should reflect high standards to insure that information is accurate and consistent. Comparable – Data collection should be standardized so the results are suitable for comparison between various jurisdictions, times and groups. Indicators should be clearly defined. For example, “Number of people with good access to food shopping” should specify ‘good access’ and ‘food shopping.’ Easy to understand – Indicators must useful to decision-makers and understandable to the general public. The more information condensed into a single index the less meaning it has for specific policy targets (for example, Ecological Footprint analysis incorporates many factors) and the greater the likelihood of double counting. Accessible and Transparent – Indicators (and the data they are based on) and analysis details should be available to all stakeholders. Cost effective – The suite of indicators should be cost effective to collect. The decisionmaking worth of the indicators must outweigh the cost of collecting them. Net Effects – Indicators should differentiate between net (total) impacts and shifts of impacts to different locations and times. Performance targets – select indicators that are suitable for establishing usable performance targets. Table 3 lists recommended indicator sets grouped into Most Important (should usually be used), Helpful (should be used if possible) and Specialized (should be used to reflect particular needs or objectives). Much of the data required for these indicators may be available through existing sources, such as censuses and consumer surveys, travel surveys and other reports. Some data can be collected during regular planning activities. For example, travel surveys and traffic counts can be modified to better account for alternative modes, and to allow comparisons between different groups (e.g., surveys can include questions to categorize respondents). Some indicators require special data that may require additional resources to collect. Some of these indicators overlap. For example, there are several indicators of transport diversity (quality and quantity of travel options, mode split, quality of nonmotorized transport, amount of non-motorized transport, etc.), and cost-based pricing (the degree to which prices reflect full costs) is considered an indicator of both economic efficiency and equity/fairness. It may be most appropriate to use just one such indicator, or if several similar indicators are used, give each a smaller weight. Developing Indicators for Comprehensive and Sustainable Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Institute 10 Table 3 Recommended Indicator Sets (1) Economic Social Environmental